Simón DJI, Simón DN, Reyes NMA

Language: Spanish
References: 2
Page: 56-58
PDF size: 197.30 Kb.

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this document is to present the results of the "Model COVID-19", in the period from 1/1/2020 to 6/30/2021, for its validation. This model was published in June 2020. Results: Even though the total number of cases infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is unknown, it can be affirmed that it is greater than the number of known confirmed cases. Therefore, the range obtained from the lethality calculated with confirmed cases is extremely wide: 0.06% to 19.67% (information obtained on June 30, 2021 from 147 countries). At the end of 2020, a correlation was made with data from the United States since it was the country with the highest number of diagnostic tests performed in 2020 (257'732,886). In the second semester, 220'366,235 tests were implemented, 85.5% of the total performed in 2020. The difference between the confirmed cases (17'458,011) and the cases estimated with our model for the second semester is minimal (0.422%), additionally, the variation of lethality was 0.005% and the discrepancy on prevalence was 0.022%. This model is useful to estimate infected cases, fatality and prevalence; based on the results of the second half of 2020. Other data is detailed based on this model.

REFERENCES

1. Roser M, Ritchie H, Ortiz-Ospina E, Hasell J. Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). Published online at OurWorldInData.org. 2020. Available in: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

2. Simón DJI, Simón DN, Reyes NMA. Cómo estimar la letalidad del COVID-19. Rev Mex Patol Clin Med Lab. 2020; 67 (1): 4-8. doi: 10.35366/93845.