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2020, Number 1

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Rev Cubana Hig Epidemiol 2020; 57 (1)

Statistical models to predictions of the COVID-19 in Cuba

Prades EE, Marín SD

Language: Spanish
References: 15
Page: 1-13
PDF size: 595.5 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Introduction: Studies based on statistical models play an important role for predictions about COVID-19.
Objective: To carry out a statistical modeling analysis combining 6 forecast models to predict the appearance of daily positive cases, active and deceased by COVID-19 in Cuba.
Method: Data reported daily from March 11 to May 25 from the CUBADEBATE website were used, which were processed and analyzed. The performance of the models was calculated: Mean absolute error (MAE), root of the mean square error (RMSE), percent of mean absolute error (MAPE) and the mean error (ME) as well as the residual analysis.
Results: Models A and B gave a constant trend between 8 and 9 cases of until July 22. Model C indicated a decrease in cases with 4 that same day and model D indicated a raise to 19 cases. Model E indicated a minimum of 126 cases on June E and then a raise to 374 hospitalized cases. Deceases cases had a constant tendency in deceases numbers above of 80 cases in first 15 days of July.
Conclusions: The 6 models studied meet the statistical , performance and residual tests. Their data provides a forecast for COVID2019, representing a valid tool.


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