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2021, Number 6

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Revista Habanera de Ciencias Médicas 2021; 20 (6)

Scenario simulation to predict the behavior of COVID-19 in Peru

Sánchez VHE, Taramona RLA, Salgado RA, Huatuco LM, Castillo PF

Language: Spanish
References: 28
Page: 1-12
PDF size: 1770.62 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Introduction: COVID-19 has been a multi-dimensional challenge for humanity, even more so for decisionmakers responsible for acting in an accurate and timely manner to confront it. In Peru, with is a current favorable trend of the Pandemic, the spread of the Delta variant is imminent, hence the need for predictive information that makes it possible to make early decisions to mitigate its effects.
Objective: To simulate scenarios applying the physical-mathematical modeling to predict the behavior of COVID-19 in Peru and facilitate decision-making.
Material and Methods: Physical-mathematical modeling using MATLAB software tools and functions.
Results: Determination of the behavior of the main variables associated with COVID-19 in Peru; physicalmathematical modeling based on the classic SIR with new compartments related to vaccination and those exposed, as well as its adjustment to the data from Peru; simulation of scenarios including the Delta variant for deceased persons, cumulative number of infected individuals, and infection in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.
Conclusions: The model conceived for the simulation of COVID-19 evolution scenarios demonstrated its ability to predict the behavior of the most important variables that determine such evolution in Peru; another wave of infections may occur and cumulative figures between 2.9 and 3.36 million infected individuals and between 215 and 255 thousand deaths may be reached. The main mitigation strategies should be aimed at guaranteeing social distancing and isolation, as well as increasing the vaccination regimen.


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