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ISSN 2520-9078 (Electronic)

2022, Number 3

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Revista de Ciencias Médicas de la Habana 2022; 29 (3)

Validation of a prognostic scale of risk of death in elderly adults with acute brain infarct

Mendieta PMD, Bender BJE, González LI

Language: Spanish
References: 17
Page: 396-405
PDF size: 394.00 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Introduction: Acute brain infarct is responsible of a high mortality in elderly adults. So far, there is not any predictive scale of risk of death which evaluates entirely the patient.
Objective: To validate a scale of risk of death, in elderly adult patients, with acute brain infarct.
Methods: A longitudinal and prospective study was carried out, from January 1st to December 31st, 2019. The research was performed in two stages. In a first moment, 145 patients who suffered from acute brain infarct were studied at ¨Leopoldito Martínez¨ General Teaching Hospital and in a second moment, the 120 patients from ¨Aleida Fernández Chardiet¨ Clinical Surgical Hospital. In the process the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve was applied, a binary logistic regression test was performed and a s correlation intraclass model was applied.
Results: It was established 10 as cut point. The area under the curve was 0.94, the model achieved a sensitivity of 0.97; the square root of Cox and Snell, showed values of 0.74 the square root of Nagelkerke was of 0.98, the logarithm of verisimilitude was visualized that was of – 5.545, a significant fact in the three values. The unique measures of absolute agreement showed a value of 0.86, very significant value p=0.000.
Conclusions: The scale to estimate scale of risk of death, in elderly adult patients, with acute brail infarct is valid.


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