Posada FPE, Rodríguez VIM, Posada RPE, Sánchez ROL

Language: Spanish
References: 10
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ABSTRACT

An ecological research of time series of acute diarrheal diseases was carried out in Ciego de Avila to assess the seasonality and trend of medical care for this disease and predict its frequency to 2011. The universe cosisted of the total medical care for acute diarrheal diseases during the years in question. Monthly and annual records were obtained from the Provincial Department of Statistics.Medical care for acute diarrheal diseases showed a downward trend until 2004, then remained steady until 2006, after which there were increases in 2007, 2009 and 2010. The forecast for 2011 was 65.9 x 103 inhabitants (IC 95% 72,3-59,5). Graphical methods used to treat the time series, showed seasonality with significant increase of medical care in the second trimester. June is the month most often in medical care, June and July were the most variability and the most consistent was November. The series was rhythmic with seasonal increases every four months.

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