2014, Number 3
The demographic transition in Mexico and its implications for the ABC Medical Center
Reyes CG
Full text
Language: Spanish
References: 3
Page: 193-196
PDF size: 194.48 Kb.
ABSTRACT
Background: The demographic transition will have its strongest effect in 2050, according to projections determined by the Consejo Nacional de Población; then, the rate of economically active population (18 to 65 years) against retirement-age population (65 years and older) will be 3 per 1. What does this mean for Mexico? There will be less people generating economical resources to give health care coverage (public or private) to elderly people; also, the market will demand an increase in more expensive treatments, due to an increment in the incidence of chronic degenerative diseases. Objective: To analyze the implications of demographic transition to prevent the impact on the operation of private hospitals. Methods: Generation of statistics and tendencies based on business intelligence in the ABC Medical Center (2013-2050), based on inpatient hospital discharges during 2012. Results: The statistics obtained validate the Consejo Nacional de Población projections (for instance, the decrease in pediatric and obstetric patients). Conclusions:The lack of demographic information could be a barrier to generating solid projections; however, it is possible to obtain future estimates about population using the current technology and the information generated by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía and the Consejo Nacional de Población for policymakers about the main changes that the health care services demand.REFERENCES