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Revista de Divulgación del INSTITUTO DE MEDICINA FORENSE de la UNIVERSIDAD VERACRUZANA

2021, Número 2

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Rev Mex Med Forense 2021; 6 (2)


Proyecciones matemáticas para los casos de COVID-19 en México

Ortigoza-Capetillo GM, Lorandi-Medina AP

Idioma: Español
Referencias bibliográficas: 11
Paginas: 115-129
Archivo PDF: 733.66 Kb.


RESUMEN

En este trabajo presentamos cálculos numéricos para generar proyecciones del número de casos COVID-19 en México. Los datos reportados quincenalmente son ajustados a diferentes modelos matemáticos: modelo generalizado de crecimiento de Richards, Gaussianas, y algoritmos de aprendizaje de máquina.
Las proyecciones para los números de infectados y muertes son obtenidos al aplicar estos modelos matemáticos a los datos quincenales de nuevos casos (incidencia) y casos acumulados.


REFERENCIAS (EN ESTE ARTÍCULO)

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  2. Adiga A., Dubhashi, et.al, Mathematical models for covid-19 pandemic: a comparative analysis, J. Indian Inst. Sci. A Multidisciplinary Reviews Journal, 2020.

  3. Zreiq R., Kamel S., et.al, Generalized Richards model for predicting COVID-19 dynamics in Saudi Arabia based on particle swarm optimization Algorithm, AIMS Public Health, 7(4): 828–843, 2020.

  4. Schüttler J., Schlickeiser R., Schlickeiser F. and Kröger M., Covid-19 Predictions Using a Gauss Model, Based on Data from April 2, Physics 2020, 2, 197–212

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  8. https://www.mathworks.com/help/stats/machine-learning-in-matlab.html

  9. Jewell N. P., Lewnard J.A., Jewell B., Predictive Mathematical Models of the COVID-19 PandemicUnderlying Principles and Value of Projections, Viewpoint [Online]:2020, retrieved January 20, 2021, available at https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764824

  10. Fowler Z., et.al, Projected impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on hospital services in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, PLoS ONE 15(11): e0241954. 2020.

  11. COVID-19 Projections [Online]; 2021, retrieved January 23, 2021, available at https://covid19.healthdata.org/mexico?view=total-deaths&tab=trend




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