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ISSN 2448-8011 (Electronic)
Revista de Divulgación del INSTITUTO DE MEDICINA FORENSE de la UNIVERSIDAD VERACRUZANA

2021, Number 2

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Rev Mex Med Forense 2021; 6 (2)

Mathematical Projections for COVID-19 Cases in México

Ortigoza-Capetillo GM, Lorandi-Medina AP

Language: Spanish
References: 11
Page: 115-129
PDF size: 733.66 Kb.


ABSTRACT

In this work we present numerical calculations to generate projections of the number of COVID-19 cases in Mexico. The data reported fortnightly is adjusted to different mathematical models: generalized growth model of Richards, Gaussian, and machine learning algorithms.
The projections for the numbers of infected and deaths are obtained by applying these mathematical models to the fortnightly data of new cases (incidence) and accumulated cases.


REFERENCES

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  3. Zreiq R., Kamel S., et.al, Generalized Richards model for predicting COVID-19 dynamics in Saudi Arabia based on particle swarm optimization Algorithm, AIMS Public Health, 7(4): 828–843, 2020.

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  10. Fowler Z., et.al, Projected impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on hospital services in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, PLoS ONE 15(11): e0241954. 2020.

  11. COVID-19 Projections [Online]; 2021, retrieved January 23, 2021, available at https://covid19.healthdata.org/mexico?view=total-deaths&tab=trend




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