medigraphic.com
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública

2025, Número 3

<< Anterior Siguiente >>

salud publica mex 2025; 67 (3)


Salud global 2050: el camino para reducir a la mitad la muerte prematura

Jamison DT, Summers LH, Chang AY, Karlsson O, Mao W, Norheim OF, Ogbuoji O, Schäferhoff M, Watkins D, Yamey G

Idioma: Español
Referencias bibliográficas: 65
Paginas: 301-322
Archivo PDF: 595.96 Kb.


RESUMEN

En el informe Salud Global 2050, la Comisión de la revista The Lancet sobre la Inversión en Salud concluye que, para mediados de siglo, es posible lograr mejoras significativas en el bienestar humano con inversiones en salud focalizadas. El informe establece el objetivo de reducir en 50% la probabilidad de muerte prematura, es decir, morir antes de los 70 años, para el año 2050, respecto a 2019. Para lograr este objetivo conocido como “50 para el 50”, se propone tratamiento de 15 afecciones prioritarias: ocho enfermedades infecciosas y afecciones maternas, y siete enfermedades no transmisibles y lesiones, las cuales, se anota, deberían ser subsidiadas por los gobiernos de los países que decidan invertir en dichas mejoras en materia de salud. Estas intervenciones también deberían reducir la morbilidad y la discapacidad. Además, se propone el fortalecimiento de los sistemas de salud mediante intervenciones costoefectivas y políticas como impuestos elevados al tabaco. Finalmente, el informe enfatiza en la preparación ante pandemias (debido al riesgo excepcionalmente alto de mortalidad) y un apoyo financiero integral y global para garantizar el desarrollo y la accesibilidad universal a servicios y tecnologías de salud.


REFERENCIAS (EN ESTE ARTÍCULO)

  1. World Bank. World development report 1993. Investing in Health.Washington D.C.: Oxford University Press, 1993 [citado agosto 19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/468831468340807129/pdf/121830REPLACEMENT0WDR01993.pdf

  2. Jamison DT, Summers LH, Alleyne G, Arrow KJ, Berkley S, Binagwaho A,et al. Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation. Lancet.2013;382(9908):1898-955. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)62105-4

  3. Watkins DA, Yamey G, Schäferhoff M, Olusoji A, Alleyle G, Alwan A, et al.Alma Ata at 40 years: reflections from the Lancet Commission on Investingin Health. Lancet. 2018;392(10156):1434-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32389-4

  4. Jamison DT, Summers LH, Chang AY, Karlsson O, Mao W, Norheim OF,et al. Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by midcentury.Lancet. 2024;404(24):1561-614. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01439-9

  5. Norheim OF, Jha P, Admasu K, Godal T, Hum RJ, Kruk ME, et al. Avoiding40% of the premature deaths in each country, 2010-30: review of nationalmortality trends to help quantify the UN Sustainable Development Goalfor health. Lancet. 2015;385(9964):239-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-

  6. 6736(14)61591-96. Gona PN, Gona CM, Ballout S, Rao SR, Kimokoti R, Mapoma CC, et al.Burden and changes in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in SouthernAfrica development community countries, 1990-2017. BMC Public Health.2020;20:867. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-08988-9

  7. Norheim OF, Chang AY, Bolongaita S, Barraza-Lloréns M, Fawole A, GebremedhinLT, et al. Halving premature death and improving the quality oflife at all ages. Background paper for CIH 3.0. 2024 [citado septiembre 12,2024]. Disponible en: https://www.uib.no/sites/w3.uib.no/files/attachments/norheim_et_al_2024_cih3.pdf

  8. World Health Organization. Global health estimates, 2000-2021. Ginebra:WHO, 2024 [citado septiembre 19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.who.int/data/global-health-estimates

  9. Chang AY, Karlsson O, Jamison DT. Quantifying the economic value ofmortality change and full income change: 1990-2019 and Covid-19 years.Noruega: Universidad de Bergen, 2024 [citado septiembre 19, 2024].Disponible en: https://www.uib.no/sites/w3.uib.no/files/attachments/chang_et_al_2024_econ_value.pdf

  10. UN Global Crisis Response Group. A world of debt: a growing burdento global posterity. Ginebra: UNCTAD, 2023 [citado agosto 19, 2024].Disponible en: https://unctad.org/publication/world-of-debt

  11. G20 Independent Expert Group. Implementing MDB reforms: a stocktake.Washington D.C.: CGD, 2024 [citado agosto 19, 2024]. Disponibleen: https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/implementing-mdb-reformsstocktake.pdf

  12. Summers LH, Singh NK. The world is still on fire. Nueva York: ProjectSyndicate, 2024 [citado agosto 19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-world-bank-spring-meetingsneed-to-get-four-things-right-by-lawrence-h-summers-and-n-k-singh-2024-04?barrier=accesspay

  13. Madhav N, Oppenheim B, Stephenson N, Badker R, Jamison DT, LamA, et al. Estimated future mortality from pathogens of epidemic andpandemic potential. Washington D.C.: CGD, 2023 [citado agosto 19, 2024].Disponible en: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/estimated-future-mortality-pathogens-epidemic-and-pandemic-potential

  14. Baumol WJ, de Ferranti D, Malach M, Pablos-Méndez A, Tabish H, WuLG. The cost disease: why computers get cheaper and health care doesn’t.Nueva Haven C.T.: Yale University Press, 2012.

  15. Jamison DT, Murphy SM, Sandbu ME. Why has infant mortalitydecreased at such different rates in different countries? J Health Econ.2016;48:16-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.03.002

  16. Norheim O, Chang AY, Bolongaita S, Barraza-Lloréns M, Fawole A, GebremedhinLT, et al. Halving premature death and improving quality of life atall ages: cross-country analyses of past trends and future directions. Lancet.2024;404(10470):2437-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02417-6

  17. Karlsson O, Chang AY, Norheim OF, Mao W, Bolongaita S, JamisonDT.Priority health conditions and life expectancy disparities. Noruega:Universidad de Bergen, 2024 [citado septiembre 12, 2024]. Disponible en:https://www.uib.no/sites/w3.uib.no/files/attachments/karlsson_et_al._priority_health_conditions.pdf

  18. Chang AY, Bolongaita S, Cao B, Castro MC, Karlsson O, Mao W, et al. Epidemiologicaland demographic trends in global health 1970-2050: analysis fromthe 3rd Lancet Commission on Investing in Health. Noruega: Universidad deBergen, 2024 [citado septiembre 19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.uib.no/sites/w3.uib.no/files/attachments/chang_et_al_2024_cih_trends.pdf

  19. Bennett JE, Stevens GA, Mathers CD, Bonita R, Rehm J, Kruk ME, et al.NCD Countdown 2030: worldwide trends in non-communicable diseasemortality and progress towards Sustainable Development Goal target3.4. Lancet. 2018;392(10152):1072-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31992-5

  20. World Health Organization. UHC Compendium Health interventionsfor Universal Health Coverage. Washington D.C.: WHO [citado junio25, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.who.int/universal-health-coverage/compendium

  21. World Health Organization, World Bank. Tracking universal healthcoverage: 2023 global monitoring report. Washington D.C.: World Bank,2023 [citado septiembre 19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240080379

  22. Jamison DT, Alwan A, Mock CN, Nugent R, Watkins D, Adeyi O, et al.Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messagesfrom Disease Control Priorities, 3rd ed. Lancet. 2018;391(10125):1108-20.https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32906-9

  23. Watkins D, Økland JM, Msemburi W, Ahmed S, Jamison D, Kaur G,et al. High-priority interventions and resource requirements to achievea convergence in premature mortality by 2050. Noruega: Universidadde Bergen, 2024 [citado agosto 19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.uib.no/sites/w3.uib.no/files/attachments/david_watkins_et_al._global_health_2050-_high-priority_interven7ons_to_achieve_a_grand_convergence_in_premature_mortality.pdf

  24. Stenberg K, Hanssen O, Tan-Torres Edejer TT, Bertram M, BrindleyC, Meshreky A, et al. Financing transformative health systems towardsachievement of the health Sustainable Development Goals: a model forprojected resource needs in 67 low-income and middle-income countries.Lancet Glob Health. 2017;5(9):e875-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30263-2

  25. Alwan A, Yamey G, Soucat A. Essential packages of health services inlow-income and lower-middle-income countries: what have we learnt?BMJ Glob Health. 2023;8(suppl 1):e010724. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2022-010724

  26. Soucat A, Tandon A, Gonzales-Pier E. From universal health coverageservices packages to budget appropriation: the long journey to implementation.BMJ Glob Health. 2023;8(suppl 1):e010755. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2022-010755

  27. Watkins DA, Msemburi WT, Pickersgill SJ, Kawakatsu Y, Gheorghe A,Dain K, et al. NCD Countdown 2030: efficient pathways and strategicinvestments to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable DevelopmentGoal target 3.4 in low-income and middle-income countries.Lancet. 2022;399(10331):1266-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02347-3

  28. World Health Organization. Making fair choices on the path touniversal health coverage. Final report of the WHO Consultative Groupon Equity and Universal Health Coverage. Ginebra: WHO, 2014 [citadoagosto 19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241507158

  29. Witter S, Palmer N, Balabanova D, Mounier-Jack S, Martineau T,Klicpera A, et al. Health system strengthening—reflections on its meaning,assessment, and our state of knowledge. Int J Health Plann Manage.2019;34(4):1980-89. https://doi.org/10.1002/hpm.2882

  30. United Nations. Political declaration of the high-level meeting onuniversal health coverage “Universal health coverage: moving togetherto build a healthier world”. Nueva York: UNM 2019 [citado agosto 19,2024]. Disponible en: https://www.un.org/pga/73/wp-content/uploads/sites/53/2019/07/FINAL-draft-UHC-Political-Declaration.pdf

  31. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The WorldBank. Global economic prospects. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2024[citado junio 28, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects

  32. Gaspar V, Mansour M, Vellutini C. Countries can tap tax potential tofinance development goals. Washington D.C.: IMF Blog, 2023 [citado agosto19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/09/19/countries-can-tap-tax-potential-to-finance-development-goals

  33. Nicholson D, Yates R, Warburton W, Fontana G. Delivering universalhealth coverage: a guide for policymakers. Report of the WISHUniversal Health Coverage Forum 2015. Qatar: WISH, 2025 [citadoagosto 23, 2024]. Disponible en: https://wish.org.qa/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/012E.pdf

  34. World Health Organization. 6th meeting of the WHO MontreuxCollaborative on fiscal space, public financial management and healthfinancing. Suiza: WHO, 2023 [citado junio 26, 2024]. Disponible en: https://res.cloudinary.com/dueqwfdln/image/upload/v1702474704/WHO_Montreux_Collaborative_2023_meeting_report_a378db2f6d.pdf

  35. Fan V, Gupta S. Five ideas for the future of global health financing: theroad not yet taken. Washington D.C.: CGD, 2024 [citado junio 28, 2024].Disponible en: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/five-ideas-future-global-healthfinancing-road-not-yet-taken

  36. Gruber J, Lin M, Yi J. The largest insurance expansion in history: savingone million lives per year in china. Massachusetts: National Boreau of EconomicResearch, 2023 [citado septiembre 12, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.nber.org/papers/w31423

  37. Zhang Y, Dong D, Xu L, Miao Z, Mao W, Sloan F, et al. Ten-yearimpacts of China’s rural health scheme: lessons for universal healthcoverage. BMJ Glob Health. 2021:6(4):e003714. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003714

  38. Sinnott E, Bussolo M, Koettl J. Golden aging: prospects for healthy,active, and prosperous aging in Europe and Central Asia. Innov Aging.2017;1(suppl 1):1271. https://doi.org/10.1093/geroni/igx004.4631

  39. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The WorldBank. Live long and prosper: aging in East Asia and Pacific. WashingtonD.C.: The World Back, 2016 [citado junio 28, 2024]. Disponible en:https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/832271468184782307/pdf/102126-PUB-Box394821B-PUBLIC-PUBDATE12-10-15-DOI-10-1596978-1-4648-0469-4-EPI-210469.pdf

  40. Luiza VL, Tavares NUL, Oliveira MA, Dourado-Arrais PS, Ramos LR, DalPizzol-da Silva T, et al. Catastrophic expenditure on medicines in Brazil.Rev Saude Publica. 2016;50(suppl 2):15s. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1518-8787.2016050006172

  41. Tougher S, Ye Y, Amuasi JH, Kourgueni IA, Thomson R, Goodman C, etal. Effect of the Affordable Medicines Facility—malaria (AMFm) on theavailability, price, and market share of quality-assured artemisinin-basedcombination therapies in seven countries: a before-and-after analysisof outlet survey data. Lancet. 2012;380(8857):1916-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(12)61732-2

  42. Zelikow P. The atrophy of American statecraft. Nueva York: ForeignAffairs, 2023 [citado junio 28, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/atrophy-american-statecraft-zelikow

  43. Jamison DT, Wu KB. The East-West divide in response to Covid-19.Engineering. 2021;7(7):936-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.05.008

  44. Pablos-Méndez A, Villa S, Monti MC, Raviglione MC, Tabish HB, EvansTG, et al. Global ecological analysis of Covid-19 mortality and comparisonbetween “the East” and “the West”. Sci Rep. 2022;12:5272. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09286-7

  45. Chen S, Zhang Z, Yang J, Wang J, Zhai X, Bärnighausen T, et al. Fangcangshelter hospitals: a novel concept for responding to public health emergencies.Lancet. 2020;395(10232):1305-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30744-3

  46. Fan VY, Kim S, Pineda D, Bertozzi S. Pandemic financing: prevention,preparedness, response, recovery and reconstruction. Noruega: Universidadde Bergen, 2024.

  47. Sparkes S, Kutzin J, Earle AJ. Financing common goods for health: acountry agenda. Health Syst Reform. 2019;5(4):322-33. https://doi.org/10.1080/23288604.2019.1659126

  48. Bloomberg MR, Summers LH, Ahmed M, Aziz Z, Basu K, Cárdenas M, etal. Health taxes to save lives. Employing effective excise taxes on tobacco,alcohol, and sugary beverages. Baltimore: Economics for Health, 2019[citado agosto 19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.tobacconomics.org/files/research/512/Health-Taxes-to-Save-Lives-Report.pdf

  49. Paraje GR, Jha P, Savedoff W, Fuchs A. Taxation of tobacco, alcohol, andsugar sweetened beverages: reviewing the evidence and dispelling themyths. BMJ Glob Health. 2023;8(suppl 8):e011866. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-011866

  50. Chaloupka FJ, Yurekli A, Fong GT. Tobacco taxes as a tobacco controlstrategy. Tob Control. 2012;21(2):172-80. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2011-050417

  51. Ravichandran B. Sugar is the new tobacco. Londres: BMJ, 2023 [citadoagosto 19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2013/03/15/balaji-ravichandran-sugar-is-the-new-tobacco/

  52. Baddeley B, Sornalingam S, Cooper M. Sitting is the new smoking: wheredo we stand? Br J Gen Pract. 2016;66(646):258. https://doi.org/10.3399/bjgp16X685009

  53. Summers LH. Taxes for health: evidence clears the air. Lancet.2018;391(10134):1974-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30629-9

  54. World Health Organization. WHO report on the global tobaccoepidemic, 2023. Ginebra: WHO, 2023 [citado agosto 19, 2024]. Disponibleen: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240077164

  55. Black S, Parry I, Vernon-Lin N. Fossil fuel subsidies surged to record$7 trillion. Washington D.C.: IMF Blog, 2023 [citado agosto 13, 2024].Disponible en: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossilfuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion

  56. Birol F, Malpass D. It’s critical to tackle coal emissions. Francia: IEA,2021 [citado agosto 19, 2024]. Disponible en: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/it-s-critical-to-tackle-coal-emissions

  57. Gnatiuc L, Alegre-Diaz J, Wade R, Ramírez-Reyes R, Tapia-Conyer R,Garcilazo-Ávila A, et al. General and abdominal adiposity and mortalityin Mexico City: a prospective study of 150 000 adults. Ann Intern Med.2019;171(6):397-405. https://doi.org/10.7326/m18-3502

  58. Bui LP, Pham TT, Wang F, Chai B, Sun Q, Hu FB, et al. Planetary healthdiet index and risk of total and cause-specific mortality in three prospectivecohorts. Am J Clin Nutr. 2024;120(1):80-91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajcnut.2024.03.019

  59. Willett W, Rockström J, Loken B, Springmann M, Lang T, Vermeulen S,et al. Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthydiets from sustainable food systems. Lancet. 2019;393(10170):447-92.https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4

  60. Kaplan S, White J, Madsen KA, Basu S, Villas-Boas SB, Schillinger D, et al.Evaluation of changes in prices and purchases following implementationof sugar-sweetened beverage taxes across the US. JAMA Health Forum.2024;5(1):e234737. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2023.4737

  61. World Health Organization. Fiscal policies to promote healthy diets:policy brief. Ginebra: WHO, 2022 [citado agosto 19, 2024]. Disponible en:https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240049543

  62. Daniels JP. Colombia introduces junk food tax. Lancet.2023;402(10417):2062. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02628-4

  63. Lane MM, Gamage E, Du S, Ashtree DN, McGuiness AJ, Gauci S, et al.Ultra-processed food exposure and adverse health outcomes: umbrellareview of epidemiological meta-analyses. BMJ. 2024;384:077310. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-077310

  64. Boysen O, Boysen-Urban K, Bradford H, Balié J. Taxing highly processedfoods: what could be the impacts on obesity and underweight in sub-Saharan Africa? World Dev. 2019;119:55-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.03.006

  65. Melson E, Ashraf U, Papamargaritis D, Davies MJ. What is the pipelinefor future medications for obesity? Int J Obes. 2024;49:433-51. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41366-024-01473-y




2020     |     www.medigraphic.com