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2022, Number 1

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Rev Cubana Invest Bioméd 2022; 41 (1)

Prediction of the prevalence of periodontal disease in the colombian population in the context of probabilistic random walking

Rodríguez VJO, González BMA, Ruiz GA, Correa HSC, Prieto BSE

Language: Spanish
References: 31
Page: 1-16
PDF size: 390.03 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Introduction: Periodontal disease is a public health problem which requires follow-up over time that allows the implementation of appropriate health plans.
Objective: Establish the behavior of the dynamics of periodontal disease through probabilistic random walking by simulating the values of periodontal disease prevalence in Colombia.
Methods: The values available and reported by the National Oral Health Study II to IV on periodontal disease prevalence were taken, and from these, three simulations of this behavior were carried out to make predictions of the prevalence values for the years 1998 and 2014 through probabilistic random walking. Additionally, three predictive simulations were performed for the dynamics of prevalence until 2030 to establish the theoretical behavior that this variable can follow.
Results: The three theoretical simulations allowed to make predictions of the prevalence rate for the years 1998 and 2014 with a percentage of success close to 100 %. Additionally, it was observed that the most likely event is that there will be an increase in the prevalence rate by 2030 compared to the value obtained by 2014.
Conclusions: It is possible to make predictions of the periodontal disease’s dynamics behavior that allow evaluating health action plans aimed at reducing the prevalence of periodontal diseases.


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