Roberto Parga-Gómez R, Buitrago-Gutiérrez G, Roldán-Henao J

Language: Spanish
References: 26
Page: 138-143
PDF size: 195.89 Kb.

ABSTRACT

Introduction and objectives: The euroSCORE is the predictive model of mortality in cardiovascular surgery more accepted worldwide. The objective of the present study was to statistically validate this model in both its logistic and additive variants in a cardiovascular referral center in Colombia. Methods: We included patients undergoing major cardiac surgery consecutively during the period of years 2007 and 2009 in the center. The risk of death was determined separately for each patient for both the additive euroSCORE and the logistic model. The capacity calibration of the model and its discrimination were calculated by comparing the observed with the predicted mortality, both overall and for each risk group. Results: Were included 498 patients, 226 (45%) of isolated CABG, and the rest other major cardiovascular surgical procedures. The calibration of the model was satisfactory (p = 0.8 and 0.2 additive and logistic). The discrimination was calculated with an area under the curve AUC of 0.85 for both models. The overall mortality reached 7.03% while 5.34% was estimated by the logistic model, and 4.47% with the additive one. The prediction was good with the two models both for overall and within each risk category, but it was more accurate in the logistic model. Conclusions: The euroSCORE has been successfully validated in this cardiovascular referral center. The results allow us to properly qualify the performance of this cardiovascular surgery program of Colombia.

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