2016, Number 2
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ABSTRACTIntroduction: community-acquired pneumonia is a common reason for medical consultation and causes high morbidity and mortality in adults, but the decision to admit a patient is based on the use of scales prognoses which do not always fit a geographical context in particular.
Objective: design and validate an index, based on prognostic factors for predicting the risk of death in adults older than 18 years diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia.
Methods: the design and validation was made for death prognostic index of community-acquired pneumonia, by a cohort study to determine the risk of death in patients admitted to the Internal Medicine and Intensive Care Units of Carlos Manuel de Céspedes General hospital, Bayamo, Granma, from February 1, 2012 to July 31, 2015.
Results: the most important prognostic factor was the shock followed by pleural effusion, C-reactive protein and multilobar pneumonia, all significantly (p = 0.000). The ability of discrimination (area under ROC curve 0.956) and calibration index (0.493) were adequate. The validity of construct, criterion, and reliability were adequate as well as the internal consistency index.
Discussion: this index is distinguished by its simplicity and easy application; it includes only 8 clinical parameters and complementary studies which are often available in Cuban health care units. The index components are took from a priori cohort study so its clinical application is possible even at the primary level.
Conclusion: the index created and validated from the most important risk factors can fairly predict the dying risk of patients with community-acquired pneumonia.
Bantar C, Curcio D, Jasovich A, Bagnulo H, Arango A, Bavestrello L, et al. Neumonía aguda adquirida en la comunidad en adultos: Actualización de los lineamientos para el tratamiento antimicrobiano inicial basado en la evidencia local del Grupo de Trabajo de Sudamérica (ConsenSur II). Rev Chil Infectol. 2010;27(Suppl 1):S9-38.
Álvarez Aliaga A, Frómeta Guerra A, López Costa C, Berdú Saumell Y, Soto Brown C. Factores de riesgo de muerte por bronconeumonía bacteriana comunitaria. Rev Cubana Med. 2009[citado 10 feb 2015];48(4). Disponible en: http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034- 75232009000400004&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es