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2019, Number 1

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Rev Med UV 2019; 19 (1)

Effect of Socio-Environmental variables in the distribution and potential risk Of Triatoma (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) In The State Of Guanajuato, Mexico

Chico-Avelino M

Language: Spanish
References: 24
Page: 19-38
PDF size: 1158.90 Kb.


ABSTRACT

Introduction. Chagas disease is caused by Trypanosoma cruzi and transmitted by insects of the Triatoma genus. The distribution of Triatoma is explained by environmental, biological and social factors. The hypothesis that this research raises is this: the interaction of environmental and social variables that refiect the lag conditions of the human population explain more precisely the pattern of distribution of this vector and, consequently, the epidemiological risk of the disease. Objectives. So as to verify the eect and contribution of socio-environmental variables in the distribution and identification of areas of greatest potential risk of Triatoma in the state of Guanajuato, two methods that analyze the distribution patterns were evaluated: one on a global scale and another locally. Materials and methods. The methods used are the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), as socio-environmental variables the following were considered: human development index, social lag index, population with a social deficiency, land use and vegetation, elevation and slope, evaporation and temperature. As occurrences, data published by López-Cárdenas et al. 2005 was used. Results. It was observed with the two methods, that the socioeconomic variables explain in more than 50% the prediction of the distribution of Triatoma; and that the social lag index is the variable that most contributes to the explanation of this distribution, with an estimated percentage of 34.3% and 39.08% for MaxEnt and GWR respectively. From these models it was identified that the areas of greatest potential risk are concentrated in the northeast side of the state, with a higher entropy was Victoria Country and with higher level of risk is Tierra blanca. Conclusions. Based on these results, it is verified that the social variables have a strong explanatory power in the prediction of the distribution and potential risk of the Triatoma disease in Guanajuato. Thus, the choice of variables that contextualize Triatoma's natural history and the host's social environment in greater depth may be more critical than the model itself.


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