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2020, Número 1

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Rev Mex Patol Clin Med Lab 2020; 67 (1)


Cómo estimar la letalidad del COVID-19

Simón DJI, Simón DN, Reyes NMA

Idioma: Español
Referencias bibliográficas: 35
Paginas: 4-8
Archivo PDF: 217.37 Kb.


RESUMEN

El presente documento tiene como objeto dar a conocer un modelo sencillo y empírico para estimar la letalidad del COVID-19 y para responder la pregunta: ¿Cuál es la cantidad de infectados por el SARS-CoV-2 en cada país? Material y métodos: Se realizó una revisión de los estudios previos, de los factores de riesgo que influyen en una mayor mortalidad y el número de defunciones y se concluyó seleccionar un parámetro de letalidad base para las simulaciones con el modelo propuesto, utilizando la base de datos del Centro Europeo para la Prevención y el Control de Enfermedades (ECDC), accesible en la plataforma: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus, a partir del 1/4/2020 y con actualizaciones diarias. Resultados: La letalidad seleccionada fue 0.9524%, siendo la media de 1.02%, con un rango de 0.65-1.34% (149 países). Para validar nuestro modelo se compararon las cifras obtenidas con la simulación contra las reportadas por Rusia (país con más pruebas por habitantes 6.45%), con los siguientes resultados para el día 2/5/2020: para casos confirmados, nuestra estimación tuvo una diferencia de -0.44%; para letalidad de +0.01% y para prevalencia de 0.00%. Conclusiones: Nuestro modelo es útil para estimar la letalidad, la prevalencia y sus variaciones de un país a otro, lo cual es esencial para apoyar a los gobiernos en la elección de estrategias apropiadas y evitar incertidumbre en la población.


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