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2020, Number 1

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Rev Mex Patol Clin Med Lab 2020; 67 (1)

How to estimate the lethality of COVID-19

Simón DJI, Simón DN, Reyes NMA

Language: Spanish
References: 35
Page: 4-8
PDF size: 217.37 Kb.


ABSTRACT

The purpose of this document is to present a simple and empirical model to estimate the fatality of COVID-19 and to answer the question: ¿What is the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 in each country? Material and methods: A review of the previous studies was carried out, of the risk factors that influence a higher mortality, the number of deaths, and it was concluded to select a lethality parameter for the simulations with the proposed model, using the database of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, accessible on the platform: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus, as of 1/4/2020 and with daily updates. Results: Lethality was adjusted to 0.9524%, the mean being 1.02%, with a range of 0.65-1.34% (149 countries). To validate our model, the figures obtained with the simulation were compared with those reported by Russia (the country with the most tests per inhabitants 6.45%), with the following results for the day 2/5/2020: for confirmed cases, our estimate had a difference of -0.44%; for lethality of +0.01% and for prevalence of 0.00%. Conclusions: Our model is useful for estimating case fatality, prevalence and its variations from one country to another, which is essential to support governments in choosing appropriate strategies and avoid population uncertainty.


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